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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 11:59:30 GMT
Here are the last 15 games - how many points do you think we will get from these and how many will we need? Over the past 10 years the fewest number of points that has got automatic promotion is 78, Port Vale in 2012/13 and Wycombe in 2008/09, the most was 88 (!!) that Hereford got in third place in 2007/08. Interestingly in the season that Hereford were promoted with 88 points in 07/08, they had 61 points after 31 games - the same as us now (MK Dons won the league with 97 points that season). A pessimistic look at these games from me gets us up to 82 points, a realistic one gets us up to 88 points and an optimistic (very) gets us winning all 15 games and 106 points… Burton Albion Fixtures League Two Dag & Red v Burton Sat 21 Feb 15:00 Accrington v Burton Tue 24 Feb 19:45 Burton v Newport Sat 28 Feb 15:00 Hartlepool v Burton Sat 7 Mar 15:00 Burton v Accrington Sat 14 Mar 15:00 Burton v Southend Wed 18 Mar 19:45 Tranmere v Burton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 Burton v Stevenage Mon 30 Mar 19:45 Plymouth v Burton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 Burton v Wycombe Mon 6 Apr 15:00 Luton v Burton Sat 11 Apr 15:00 Burton v Carlisle Wed 15 Apr 19:45 Morecambe v Burton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 Burton v Northampton Sat 25 Apr 15:00 Cambridge v Burton Sat 2 May 15:00 You can play around with the tables at this great site: www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-two/2014-2015/table |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 12:04:41 GMT
And if JFH repeats his success of his first 15 games (which will be really difficult) we would collect 32 points and end up on 93 points.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 12:47:28 GMT
Dag & Red v Burton Sat 21 Feb 15:00 DRAW
Accrington v Burton Tue 24 Feb 19:45 DRAW
Burton v Newport Sat 28 Feb 15:00 WIN
Hartlepool v Burton Sat 7 Mar 15:00 DRAW
Burton v Accrington Sat 14 Mar 15:00 WIN
Burton v Southend Wed 18 Mar 19:45 DRAW
Tranmere v Burton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 DRAW
Burton v Stevenage Mon 30 Mar 19:45 WIN
Plymouth v Burton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 LOSE
Burton v Wycombe Mon 6 Apr 15:00 WIN
Luton v Burton Sat 11 Apr 15:00 LOSE
Burton v Carlisle Wed 15 Apr 19:45 WIN
Morecambe v Burton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 DRAW
Burton v Northampton Sat 25 Apr 15:00 DRAW
Cambridge v Burton Sat 2 May 15:00 DRAW
We're better at home than we are away (as always) and the lack of a prolific striker coupled with the end of season pressure may cost us points and lead us to draw games we possibly should win.
I reckon 23 points from that lot which would land us on 84 points.
I can't see Wycombe lasting the pace and tomorrow night is pivotal for Luton. Win at Mansfield with a depleted team and all of a sudden they're back in the top 3 with important players to come back for the run in.
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Post by Frank Ashton on Feb 16, 2015 14:35:21 GMT
Here are the last 15 games - how many points do you think we will get from these and how many will we need? Over the past 10 years the fewest number of points that has got automatic promotion is 78, Port Vale in 2012/13 and Wycombe in 2008/09, the most was 88 (!!) that Hereford got in third place in 2007/08. Interestingly in the season that Hereford were promoted with 88 points in 07/08, they had 61 points after 31 games - the same as us now (MK Dons won the league with 97 points that season). A pessimistic look at these games from me gets us up to 82 points, a realistic one gets us up to 88 points and an optimistic (very) gets us winning all 15 games and 106 points… I believe that to reach 3rd is going to take a record points total. I agree with your "realistic" assessment Funky, 3rd is going to need a points total of 89 or more. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 15:52:00 GMT
I had a good look at this last night, I agree with Spence that Luton's game at Mansfield on Tuesday is pivotal, Wycombe, Southend and Luton all have games against each other in the run in too. Wycombe also have to go to Shrewsbury.
The Albion have important games at home(well they are all important) against Newport, Southend and Wycombe which I feel we can not afford to lose, obviously the away game at Luton will also be very important.
Overall I am expecting Shrewsbury to pull away but I also expect ourselves to open a gap to the 3rd placed club and to have obtained promotion prior to the last home game against Northampton.
I calculated we will get around 85 points and lose at Plymouth, Luton and Cambridge United.
The scrap for 3rd place I believe will go down to the last game with Luton, Southend and Wycombe all facing tough games.
To be honest everything could change if we bring in a prolific striker as I believe we could then give the Shrews a run for their money for the championship.
We have nothing to fear from any of our rivals !
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Post by observer on Feb 16, 2015 17:13:44 GMT
I have a feeling Mansfield will get a result against Luton. Will be disappointed if they don't.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 17:34:26 GMT
Luton will be missing both central defenders McNulty and Wilkinson plus Nathan Doyle in midfield. I see Billy Kee was on the bench on Saturday, would be nice to see him do the Brewers a favour.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 17:44:43 GMT
I've divided the last 15 games into two parts, up until April 1st and from then on. In the 8 games up to April 1st, which on paper are an easier group than the last 7games, I predict 17 points (based on Jimmys 2.13 points per game so far) giving us 78 pts on Apr.1st. Then the fun starts, some tough games in April and it will be a nervous month for the players as they push for automatic promotion. So, 10 points from the last 7 games should be enough, leaving us with 88. Of course I would love to have 106 though! BTW, be careful using the statto.com website as fact. I posted it on FB and was crucified because their stats were wrong.  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2015 18:03:19 GMT
I worked it out similar Peacock, 16pts from the first 8 and 8pts from the last 7 games. Which would give 85 pts which I think will be enough.
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Post by oxfordbrewer on Feb 17, 2015 0:35:49 GMT
Being (slightly!) pedantic, the fewest points for automatic promotion would be in 2009-10, when Rochdale would only have needed 74pts to go up in third place (you only need 1 more point than the team in 4th place to get promoted...). Bit of an outlier though, that season.
The average over the last 10 years is approximately 80 using the same method. The most points that a team has got and not got promoted is 84 (MK Dons - 2006-07). Bit unfortunate, that.
In the past, when someone has missed out with a points total above 80, it has been because it has been a four or five team fight, with the rest of the league some way behind. This season doesn't feel like it will pan out that way to me. I don't see Wycombe lasting the pace, for one, and I don't think Southend are good enough going forwards, or consistent enough overall (although they probably have the best keeper in the league).
82pts seems a good number to aim for. Would get you promotion 9 times out of 10. That's another 21pts, or 7 wins in 15 games. Wins against Hartlepool, Accrington x2, Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton should see us all but there (plus a couple of draws) without even considering us getting points in the difficult games we have left.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2015 17:38:19 GMT
I had a good look at this last night, I agree with Spence that Luton's game at Mansfield on Tuesday is pivotal, Wycombe, Southend and Luton all have games against each other in the run in too. Wycombe also have to go to Shrewsbury. The Albion have important games at home(well they are all important) against Newport, Southend and Wycombe which I feel we can not afford to lose, obviously the away game at Luton will also be very important. Overall I am expecting Shrewsbury to pull away but I also expect ourselves to open a gap to the 3rd placed club and to have obtained promotion prior to the last home game against Northampton. I calculated we will get around 85 points and lose at Plymouth, Luton and Cambridge United. The scrap for 3rd place I believe will go down to the last game with Luton, Southend and Wycombe all facing tough games. To be honest everything could change if we bring in a prolific striker as I believe we could then give the Shrews a run for their money for the championship. We have nothing to fear from any of our rivals ! The penultimate line here states about us bringing in a striker, I believe we have done that today, looking upward rather than behind us ! |
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Post by observer on Feb 17, 2015 23:19:33 GMT
Oxfordbrewer suggests 82 points will be enough for automatic. Meaning we need 21 points from 15 games.
For it not to be enough then TWO teams out of wycombe, Southend and luton would need to get at least 26 points from their 15 games.
The way teams are playing at the moment there is way more chance we will take 21 points from 15 games than two of them will take 26 or more from their 15
I like our chances
It's in our grasp now that's for sure
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Post by observer on Feb 17, 2015 23:22:16 GMT
Although I like our chances I wouldn't want to bet on us
The current best odds on us getting promotion are now 1/5 odds on
50 pounds bet to win 10 pounds
No thanks
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Post by johnno on Feb 18, 2015 11:51:01 GMT
That's the rub isn't it Observer...I bet we could have got 50 to 1 or better at the start of the season but it's great in another way, in that the bookees clearly believe we are almost certainties for promotion?
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Post by oxfordbrewer on Feb 18, 2015 12:56:51 GMT
50/1 for promotion at the start of the season would have been lovely! Unfortunately it wasn't that high. I got on us to win the league at 12/1 before the first game of the season.
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Post by observer on Feb 18, 2015 16:00:32 GMT
50/1 for promotion at the start of the season would have been lovely! Unfortunately it wasn't that high. I got on us to win the league at 12/1 before the first game of the season. If we were only 12/1 to WIN the league then we must have been no better than 3/1 to get promoted? Maybe lower - 4 teams to get promoted just one team to win the league |
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Post by oxfordbrewer on Feb 18, 2015 17:58:27 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Feb 18, 2015 21:34:05 GMT
We only need 11 points from our last 15 games to match last years points total.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2015 19:21:38 GMT
Make that 8 points from 14 games peacock !
We would have to implode drastically not to beat last years total !
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Post by bartonyellow on Feb 21, 2015 20:30:14 GMT
The players have to keep focused and not look at the league table. There will be plenty of twists and turns now, as teams fight for survival and promotion. Big hearts needed! And the fans play their part too. The home crowd should not dip under 3000 in my opinion. They deserve our support.
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