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Post by observer on Feb 21, 2015 22:16:57 GMT
We are now 1/10 odds on for promotion.
Personally I would like us to be 15 points clear of automatic to feel comfortable with or without others having games in hand
If we could win on Tuesday then that isn't so far away from achieving and would be a real cushion
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2015 17:14:04 GMT
Found my predictions that I made when I put this thread up… Burton Albion Fixtures Pessemistic ones… League Two Dag & Red v Burton Sat 21 Feb 15:00 DRAW Accrington v Burton Tue 24 Feb 19:45 WIN Burton v Newport Sat 28 Feb 15:00 LOSS Hartlepool v Burton Sat 7 Mar 15:00 DRAW Burton v Accrington Sat 14 Mar 15:00 WIN Burton v Southend Wed 18 Mar 19:45 DRAW Tranmere v Burton Sat 21 Mar 15:00 WIN Burton v Stevenage Mon 30 Mar 19:45 DRAW Plymouth v Burton Fri 3 Apr 15:00 LOSS Burton v Wycombe Mon 6 Apr 15:00 DRAW Luton v Burton Sat 11 Apr 15:00 LOSS Burton v Carlisle Wed 15 Apr 19:45 WIN Morecambe v Burton Sat 18 Apr 15:00 DRAW Burton v Northampton Sat 25 Apr 15:00 WIN Cambridge v Burton Sat 2 May 15:00 LOSS Read more: burtonbrewers.proboards.com/thread/1601/15-games-left#ixzz3TikYfmKCSo we are a point better off than my pessimistic selection. Very important goal at Hartlepool today.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2015 19:44:02 GMT
All my predictions for those first four games were wrong but I was correct with the amount of points I thought we'd get. I said three draws and a win against Newport!
This is why I never bet.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2015 11:52:48 GMT
On my pessimistic outlook, we have 12 ahead of the 9 I was 'predicting'.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2015 12:04:55 GMT
We only need 11 points from our last 15 games to match last years points total. We now have one more point than last seasons total, with 9 games or 27 points to play for. If we win them all we'll end with 100pts!
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Post by everard on Mar 19, 2015 13:04:53 GMT
We only need 11 points from our last 15 games to match last years points total. We now have one more point than last seasons total, with 9 games or 27 points to play for. If we win them all we'll end with 100pts! I predict - we will not win them all.......
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2015 13:48:40 GMT
Now 7 points ahead of my pessimistic prediction…
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Post by E7#9 on Apr 8, 2015 14:02:41 GMT
Now 7 points ahead of my pessimistic prediction… Just looked at my prediction and we are 2 points ahead of that. I predicted 3 draws against Stevenage, Plymouth and Wycombe and then a loss against Luton. I then predicted Carlisle win, Morecambe draw, Northampton win and finally a draw against Cambridge.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2015 14:33:03 GMT
Looked at my prediction sheet, we are a point better off than I thought we would be, although the points weren't necessarily picked up how I expected.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2015 18:41:37 GMT
I've divided the last 15 games into two parts, up until April 1st and from then on. In the 8 games up to April 1st, which on paper are an easier group than the last 7games, I predict 17 points (based on Jimmys 2.13 points per game so far) giving us 78 pts on Apr.1st. Then the fun starts, some tough games in April and it will be a nervous month for the players as they push for automatic promotion. So, 10 points from the last 7 games should be enough, leaving us with 88. Of course I would love to have 106 though! BTW, be careful using the statto.com website as fact. I posted it on FB and was crucified because their stats were wrong. Well I was pretty close predicting 78pts on April 1st when we actually had 77. Where we stand now on 81 we need 7pts to guarantee auto-promo (if Bury win all their games and the GD doesn't change drastically) and 81 + 7 = 88. I think now though that we will get 90 (at least). COYB!!! Sheffield Utd, Chesterfield, Walsall, Port Vale, Coventry, Shrews, and even Blackpool for a laff next season. Even Notts County and Wigan are not that far. Lots of big games closer to home!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2015 20:32:05 GMT
I have an article ready to go on league one away attendances etc but will not post it until we are mathematically certain of going up !
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 20:07:16 GMT
I've divided the last 15 games into two parts, up until April 1st and from then on. In the 8 games up to April 1st, which on paper are an easier group than the last 7games, I predict 17 points (based on Jimmys 2.13 points per game so far) giving us 78 pts on Apr.1st. Then the fun starts, some tough games in April and it will be a nervous month for the players as they push for automatic promotion. So, 10 points from the last 7 games should be enough, leaving us with 88. Of course I would love to have 106 though! BTW, be careful using the statto.com website as fact. I posted it on FB and was crucified because their stats were wrong. Well I was pretty close predicting 78pts on April 1st when we actually had 77. Where we stand now on 81 we need 7pts to guarantee auto-promo (if Bury win all their games and the GD doesn't change drastically) and 81 + 7 = 88. I think now though that we will get 90 (at least). COYB!!! Sheffield Utd, Chesterfield, Walsall, Port Vale, Coventry, Shrews, and even Blackpool for a laff next season. Even Notts County and Wigan are not that far. Lots of big games closer to home! whoa, this is getting scary. I should start betting! Currently on 91 points with 3 more in bag surely to reach 94. Who knows what the highest total was that any team reached in L2?
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Post by Frank Ashton on Apr 28, 2015 21:40:52 GMT
Well I was pretty close predicting 78pts on April 1st when we actually had 77. Where we stand now on 81 we need 7pts to guarantee auto-promo (if Bury win all their games and the GD doesn't change drastically) and 81 + 7 = 88. I think now though that we will get 90 (at least). COYB!!! Sheffield Utd, Chesterfield, Walsall, Port Vale, Coventry, Shrews, and even Blackpool for a laff next season. Even Notts County and Wigan are not that far. Lots of big games closer to home! whoa, this is getting scary. I should start betting! Currently on 91 points with 3 more in bag surely to reach 94. Who knows what the highest total was that any team reached in L2? The highest total that any team reached in L2 (or the old Div.3 or 4) appears to be 102 by Swindon in 1985/86. www.fl125.co.uk/records/league-points
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Post by Deleted on Apr 28, 2015 22:58:07 GMT
Thanks Frank. Yeah, Div 4 would have been the equivalent to the current L2 I guess. I googled your info and got this on wiki (assuming you can trust wiki ), the Div4 or (L2) winner was indeed Swindon who had 102 in Div4 under Lou Macari, that is very commendable. I wonder who had the highest total since 2004-5 when L2 was first formed? Do we have a chance of creating another statistic to toss about? Oh, here is the link I found en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985–86_in_English_football#Fourth_Division_3
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Post by observer on Apr 29, 2015 8:40:12 GMT
MK Dons won League 2 with 97 points since it changed (Peterborough finished second on 92 that season)
Notts County and Swindon have both won it with 93
As I have mentioned many times - its seemed like we have had to win a hell of a lot of points this season to be successful
Exeter came runners up once with 79 points - there's 5 teams this season ahead of that with a game to spare!
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Post by Newark Colin on Apr 29, 2015 9:05:49 GMT
League 2 wasn't formed in 2004/5. It was rebranded. Personally I'd go back to calling the 4 divisions by their old names.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2015 21:00:28 GMT
Well, call it what you will but there never a League 2 before 2004-5 season.
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Post by Newark Colin on Apr 30, 2015 21:52:40 GMT
Well, call it what you will but there never a League 2 before 2004-5 season. Yes there was. It was called Division 3 and before that it was called Division 4.
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 10:18:59 GMT
Being (slightly!) pedantic, the fewest points for automatic promotion would be in 2009-10, when Rochdale would only have needed 74pts to go up in third place (you only need 1 more point than the team in 4th place to get promoted...). Bit of an outlier though, that season. The average over the last 10 years is approximately 80 using the same method. The most points that a team has got and not got promoted is 84 (MK Dons - 2006-07). Bit unfortunate, that. In the past, when someone has missed out with a points total above 80, it has been because it has been a four or five team fight, with the rest of the league some way behind. This season doesn't feel like it will pan out that way to me. I don't see Wycombe lasting the pace, for one, and I don't think Southend are good enough going forwards, or consistent enough overall (although they probably have the best keeper in the league). 82pts seems a good number to aim for. Would get you promotion 9 times out of 10. That's another 21pts, or 7 wins in 15 games. Wins against Hartlepool, Accrington x2, Stevenage, Carlisle and Northampton should see us all but there (plus a couple of draws) without even considering us getting points in the difficult games we have left. Wycombe and Southend both joined the Dons this season with that record! What a season it was!
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